Drawing Conclusions

What Assumptions Can You Make?

by Aaron Rice (a.rice@ukonline.co.uk)
written 25 May 1996

This article is classified "Partly real, partly fictional"


From the results of any experiment or any occurrence, there are usually
a number of conclusions that can be drawn.  The circumstances of the
happenings will allow you to make assumptions, and perhaps definite
statements, about which conclusions are probable or even possible.

The assumptions that can be made will often be limited by the knowledge of
the person making them.  For example, if a live cat and a plate of chicken
were left in an otherwise empty sealed room, and when this room was opened
again a short while later, the plate of chicken remained untouched and the
cat had vanished, the following could be surmised:

       1) The cat has somehow escaped; this would contradict your
          knowledge about the room, that it was sealed, and that
          therefore nothing could escape.  This could lead you to believe
          that your initial assumption about the room was untrue, or that
          someone has released the cat, or the cat itself, departed
          before the door was sealed.

       2) The cat is there, but it isn't visible; this would contradict
          your knowledge about the cat, that it has no ability to
          camouflage itself and nowhere to hide.  From this you might
          assume that cat has escaped (if you couldn't hear it meowing.)

       3) The plate of chicken has somehow consumed the cat; this
          contradicts your knowledge about the plate of chicken, that the
          plate has always been inanimate, and the chicken was rendered
          inanimate when it was removed from its carcass and chopped into
          pieces.  From this, you might assume that you are going crazy.

Of course, to explain the first possibility, if you had the imagination or
the technology, you might assume that some form of teleportation device had
allowed the cat to pass through the boundaries of the room and onto freedom.
Scientifically, without proof of the existence of this form of device, you
cannot form this as an explanation.  The possibility that somebody has
released the cat, while being perfectly plausible, will also compromise your
assumptions about the security of the room.  Also, the idea that the cat
left the room before it was sealed will be discounted here.

To explain the second, you could decide that the cat is hiding under the
chicken, or the plate.  This could be the case if the plate is large enough,
or the quantity of chicken is sufficient.  Unfortunately, for the purposes
of this experiment, they are not.

The third conclusion is so patently ridiculous that in an irrational
universe, it could well be the case.  Unfortunately, if this were the case,
it would challenge every other piece of knowledge and every other assumption
you have.  For this reason, most people will discount it, and for the
purposes of this experiment, so will we.

You might also, at some point, assume that you are looking in the wrong
room.  For the purposes of this experiment, the room is clearly labeled, and
its exact location is beyond doubt.  You may rest assured that no mistake of
this form can have been made.

It is, of course, possible that someone had actually forgotten to put the
cat in the room in the first place.  This is most likely to be the case,
because every other assumption that has been made seems so unlikely, that
they cannot, within the bounds of technology, reason and knowledge, be the
case.  In the end, however, the only remaining question may be:  where is
the cat?

From the facts, it is usually possible to find the most likely conclusions,
and report on these in whichever way you see fit, though if they lack a
certain impact, it can be necessary to use one of the less plausible
explanations to justify whatever time and effort and money you have
spent [1].

If you are not inclined to spend any time, effort, or money on the
experiment, however, a creative and imaginative touch is required to create
a conclusion that is both plausible and entertaining, while keeping a touch
of originality, and perhaps a pinch of insanity.  You are not advised to
take this approach if you are required to demonstrate the reasons for your
conclusion, unless you have also created a water-tight explanation.

Epilogue:  please be assured that the cat came to no harm.  As for the
plate of chicken, that was the last big job it ever did.  Its life went on
the slide from there-onwards, it went on the bottle (gravy, I think), its
whole family deserted it, and they reposessed the saucer.  Even its agent
said, "What good is a showbiz plate of chicken?"  It was pretty broken up.
Last I heard was when it hitched a lift northwards, and became part of a
cabaret act, with an old half-pint carton of milk and a tube of toothpaste.
Apparently it's not bitter, but I wouldn't want to put that to the test.

[1] It may occasionally be necessary to justify the use of these even if
    they haven't been used.

See also:
  • Quantum Mechanics Of Sandwiches In Lunchboxes
  • Ignorance
  • Lost Property
  • Schroedinger's Cat

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