Luck

Luck Does Not Change

by Roel van der Meulen (vdmeulen@strw.leidenuniv.nl)
written 23 May 1996

This article is classified "Partly real, partly fictional"


"Luck" is a vague and hard to measure quantity [1].  While some (eg.
scientists) might argue that there are no such things as non-random
probability fluctuations linked to individuals, the majority of people have
an intuitive understanding of the existence of luck.  This understanding
often includes the aspect that "luck can change".  This aspect is often
encountered when in unhappy circumstances people try to comfort you by 
saying that your luck is bound to change.

Alas, that is not so.  Luck is a conserved quantity.  This should not cast 
you into desperation, because there is more.  While it is true that not all
have the same lifetime averaged amount of luck, everyone is sure to at least
have some.  The luck you have had up to now could have led you to consider
yourself an unlucky person, but nothing has yet been said about the spread
of luck around the average.  Some may have little portions of luck every
day, for instance a larger than average count of green traffic lights.  Some
may grow old without encountering their portion of luck, and then suddenly
they win the jackpot (and die of a heart attack).  It is just not possible
to predict.

Sooner or later you will encounter an event of luck... like I have
recently.  I was just minding my business when I received an e-mail:  "Hi,
I just read your amazingly witty articles, and I have decided to marry you."
Now how about that! [2]

So next time you see a poor beggar, wrapped in a large blanket against the
cold, don't say "now that's an unlucky bloke" but think again and say
instead "now there's a guy with a wide spread!" [3]

[1] A way to quantify luck is to count how many times major nice things have
    happened to you out of the blue.  As an example I will mention some of 
    those occasions I experienced myself:
          1) When I was a wee lad I was walking down the street with a
             friend, when somebody suddenly came up to us and offered us a
             holiday job.
          2) Being a healthy young boy, the medical test revealed no
             shortcomings that would have made me unfit for military
             service.  After that I sat back (basically) and lo and behold,
             after seven years of waiting I suddenly had a minor sports
             injury, sufficient to put me off the hook, but not enough to
             cause me any discomfort.
          3) The only subject for my student research I could effectively
             choose was in a field of research that suddenly knew a
             tremendous breakthrough, which created a tailor made research
             program for me after graduation.
          4) I think this is about enough, I don't want to cause any envy!
[2] Some would reply here:  "you are a sucker for punishment!"
[3] Did you notice this article said nothing about nothing?

See also:
  • Seize The Day
  • Meulen, Roel Van Der
  • How Can Beggars Afford To Keep Dogs?
  • Random Sort Method
  • Problem Solving
  • Beginner's Luck

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